Our Models
Preparing the Solaris model ecosystem.
Great Barrier Reef · NASA Earth ObservatorySolaris climate intelligence
Our Models
Four intelligent systems working together to better understand Earth's future.
The foundation
Aeros
The observed climate record becomes a transparent view of what may come next.
Aeros analyzes historical average temperatures from trusted datasets, validates data quality, identifies long-term trends, and projects average temperatures through 2100. Statistical ensembles estimate uncertainty and preserve it as confidence intervals around every forecast.
1940–2100 timelineEnsemble forecastingMultiple locationsSeasonal analysis
Current implementation: historical climate records and statistical ensemble methods.
New York City, United States
Viewing 1940–2100Aeros Temperature Projection
Central Park demonstration station · 1940–2100
Observed DataHistorical TrendAeros ProjectionConfidence Range
Hover or focus the graph to inspect each year. Seasonal controls use the same demonstration location and model assumptions.
Evidence-aware refinement
Nexus
Climate history is the baseline. The world around it is the context.
Nexus examines scientific research, government policies, infrastructure projects, environmental events, and other trusted information that may influence future outcomes. It refines the Aeros prediction without replacing or obscuring that original baseline.
Every adjustment remains connected to its evidence and place in the workflow.
Evidence workflowTrace the refinement
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Trusted station records establish an observed climate history.
Carbon pathway intelligence
Core
Follow carbon through the atmosphere—and into the climate signal.
Core models atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, emissions scenarios, radiative forcing, and their influence on future temperature projections. It makes carbon pathways legible over time while complementing the Aeros baseline rather than replacing it.
Adjust the illustrative 2100 concentration to see how the atmospheric signal changes.
Illustrative concentration pathway485 ppm by 2100
- Radiative forcing
- 2.94 W/m²
- Illustrative influence
- +2.35 °C
Scenario simulation
Catalyst
Ask “what if?”—then make every assumption visible.
Catalyst introduces hypothetical policies, infrastructure projects, emissions changes, and environmental decisions. It estimates how those choices may influence future outcomes directly from the shared Aeros baseline. Like Nexus and Core, Catalyst is a specialized path—not the next step in a chain.
This mock builder demonstrates the experience; values are illustrative and are not a climate projection.
Custom scenario · 2100Build a possible future
Illustrative change by 2100-0.77 °C2 assumptions active
BaselineCustom scenario
One connected platform
One baseline. Three questions.
Historical data becomes an Aeros baseline. From there, Solaris branches into three different questions: context, carbon, or scenarios.DATA
Historical Climate Data
Observed records
BASE
Aeros
The shared foundation projection
A
Nexus
Research, policy, and real-world context
B
Core
Carbon concentrations and emissions pathways
C
Catalyst
Hypothetical decisions and scenarios
One foundation. Three specialized paths. One climate intelligence platform.